Is the folding screen going to be rolled up three times？ Yu Chengdong： Others can’t make such a subversive product
From narrower creases to light and anti-drop, the folding screen is finally about to roll up to three folds.
Recently, a photo of Yu Chengdong, chairperson of Huawei’s end point BG, holding the new machine in his hand on the plane was circulated on the Internet. The photo shows that he is holding a three-fold mobile phone. From the photo, it can be seen that the machine should be folded inside and outside, with a double hinge design. The screen is expected to be about 10 inches. Online news said that the schedule of the machine is "earlier than the Mate 70".
Yu Chengdong revealed at the Xiangjie S9 delivery event that Huawei’s triple-folding screen mobile phone will be released in September. It is reported that the specific date is likely to be September 28.
From the release of the first folding screen mobile phone in 2018 to the present, the folding screen category seems to have completed the evolution from early adopters to commonly used, achieving a hundred flowers blooming. But in fact, since this year, some brands have adjusted the rhythm of folding screen releases, and some manufacturers have suspended the iteration of small folds, so as to focus on the main fold. At this time, why did Huawei dare to be the first to eat crabs and launch a three-fold screen mobile phone? Is it to show off muscles, or is there really a demand?
Five years.
Is the folding screen still a niche?
Since the release of the first folding screen mobile phone in 2018, the folding screen has been developed for 5 years. Domestic mobile phone manufacturers have also tried to release various forms of folding screen mobile phones. The price has dropped from the unattainable tens of thousands of yuan to five or six thousand yuan; the feel has also been upgraded from the previous heavy and inconvenient to comparable to the straight machine. However, the folding screen mobile phone has not yet been popularized by the public and has become the mainstream model.
According to TrendForce consulting data, the global folding mobile phone shipments in 2023 15.90 million units, an increase of 25% year-on-year, accounting for only about 1.4% of the overall smartphone market that year.
Although the data given by IDC shows that China’s folding screen mobile phone has seen rapid growth in 2023, an increase of 114.5% year-on-year, the growth rate is much higher than the global market, but the shipment is only 7.007 million units, only 2.4% of the mobile phone market in ** countries.
In 2024, TrendForce believes that folding screen shipments will usher in 11% year-on-year growth, and the market penetration rate is expected to rise to 1.5%. By 2025, it may exceed 2%. But no matter how much growth, such a penetration rate is difficult to be linked to the "mainstream".
At the beginning of this year, there were also analysts who reported that two major mobile phone brands had decided to suspend plans to launch new vertical folding screen mobile phones in 2024. Sales data for 2024Q1 released by Counterpoint Research, a market consultancy, also showed that the small folding market was somewhat sluggish: shipments of horizontal folding large folding models increased by 91% year-on-year, while shipments of vertical small folding models decreased by 1% year-on-year.
Overall, the growth of the folding screen mobile phone market has gradually entered the plateau.
Why does the folding screen category seem to have completed the evolution from early adopters to commonly used, the creases are narrower, the body is thinner, and it has become resistant to falling and manufacturing… but it is still not the mainstream?
That is a fundamental problem that everyone has been avoiding. Even the current largest size of the 8-inch internal screen is limited by the display ratio. In scenes such as watching movies and viewing PPT, the amount of information it can display is not obvious compared to the large-screen straight-board machine.
In layman’s terms, it means "although the screen is large, it cannot be fully utilized".
The goal of the folding screen is to break the limit of the screen of the straight board machine, but it has great significance, such as three times the offline viewing of the straight board machine, which can replace the existence of small tablets.
Perhaps, this is the problem that the triple folding screen can solve.
Will triple folding make folding mainstream?
From the information currently exposed on the Internet, Huawei’s three-fold can bring about a 10-inch super-large screen, with a focus on achieving a display ratio close to 16:10. Therefore, the aforementioned assumptions become possible. With a folding keypad and a stylus, it really has the opportunity to replace a small-sized screen, and a 10-inch large screen can also be fully utilized.
The folding screen is what Mr. Yu calls a "subversive" product.
Yu Chengdong once broke the news in Dong Yuhui’s live stream: The next generation of folding screens can be imagined by others, but they can’t be made. We have been thinking about it for five years, and it is finally about to come out.
In 2023, Yu Chengdong also used the same words to describe this three-fold screen phone: Huawei will launch very leading, innovative, disruptive products… At that time, you can see how we can rewrite the history of this industry. Hope to continue to exceed everyone’s expectations, do things that others can’t think of or think of but can’t do, or even things they dare not think of.
Industry experts
The three-fold screen mobile phone still has many challenges: the three-fold screen achieved by folding inside and outside must first solve the flatness of the two different directions of the folding support, as well as the reliability problem after long-term use, which is undoubtedly the biggest challenge for its shaft structure at present.
Secondly, the challenge of weight and thickness, under the premise of ensuring performance, heat dissipation, and battery life, how can a mobile phone of this form be relatively lightweight without castrating its core functions?
Finally, going back to the early folding screen is not resistant to falling, because it involves two folds, the screen is exposed to more areas, an annual blockbuster product that is expected to sprint 20,000, how to ensure that the screen can be fully protected? This will also be a big challenge for Huawei.
From the world’s first 5G folding screen, to the largest brand in the form of folding screen, to the world’s first mass-produced triple-folding screen flagship that is about to be released, Huawei has indeed achieved a leading position in the field of folding screens.
Huawei’s triple-folding screen phone will be the end of the folding screen, allowing folding phones to go mainstream? We will wait and see.