Text | Intelligent Relativity (aixdlun), by | ihahe
Black holes have infinite gravity in astronomy, but they can also become the creators of new stars at the right time. The personality of creator and destroyer is interwoven through the personality of black hole, showing fascinating and diverse properties. But to make use of its creator characteristics, the premise is that it cannot be completely swallowed up by black holes.
Because of its complexity and high maintenance cost, the operating system has a similar effect to a black hole in nature. If it is done well, it can create a new format, and if it is not done well, it will be swallowed up and annihilated. On the road of operating system, especially twists and turns, most of them have been swallowed up and become a monument to guide the latecomers, one by one spectacular. Those who survived, standing on their bones, earned huge benefits while enjoying the obedience of the mountains. Stimulated by this, the latecomers climbed over the obstacles and took risks by pulling open the bones in front. At present, Huawei is undoubtedly the most vocal among them (this article only discusses the mobile operating system represented by the mobile operating system).
Whether Huawei HarmonyOS can be the one who survives or continue to be a monument to guide others, everyone is watching the play.
Huawei is also cooperating with acting. HarmonyOS system has been prepared for seven years since 2012, and it has adopted a bottom-up and inside-out technical attack mode. First, improve the details, and then output the product force from the complete product. On the surface, it is a systematic consideration, which is very effective. At present, HarmonyOS is still in a weak position, and it is necessary to have a killer weapon. However, greatly improving the efficiency through the compiler can completely pierce the heart of Android, which is one dimension higher than the way of simply making an operating system.
This is in a sense.Imitate the apple model,Provide perfect solutions at the operating system level, and reduce the burden on developers with the goal of high efficiency, thus expanding the team of developers.
At present, Huawei is building a developer group. According to the information provided by a development organization, Huawei began to send letters to recruit developers two years ago, expecting them to do development for Huawei.
Huawei has reason to prepare in advance. At present, its mobile phone sales exceed 200 million units, and among the top three mobile phone sales, Samsung has Tizen (although the quantity is small), Apple has iOS, but Huawei has no formed operating system.
Even if it follows Apple’s example of Samsung, Huawei has sufficient reasons and foundation to be an operating system. And in the ecosystem construction, follow the example of iOS. Of course, Huawei itself is a little worried. It began to promote HarmonyOS operating system after preheating its "ambition" through the compiler, so that users can accept it psychologically faster.
It can be said that Huawei would not be so high-profile if it were not for the ban of the US government.
After Huawei was banned by the US government, some overseas markets showed a wait-and-see attitude towards Huawei’s mobile phones. As a result, Huawei’s mobile phones have temporarily dropped significantly in Europe and Asia Pacific. The situation has changed dramatically at this moment. On June 7, Alphabet applied to the Trump administration to lift Huawei’s ban on Android for the same reason — — It’s about "national security".
Alphabet just wants to cover up the fact that HarmonyOS will have a great influence on Android through the pocket of "national security". Alphabet has obviously regarded HarmonyOS as the most difficult opponent of Android.
Alphabet believes that banning Huawei from using Android has triggered Huawei’s determination to be independent of Android, which will lead to the split of Android. Although Alphabet’s remarks are not credible, they are obviously urgent.
"Intelligent Relativity" ihahe thinks there are four reasons for thinking.
First of all,The introduction of some of Huawei’s mobile phones into HarmonyOS will reduce the market share of Android.In the current fierce competition situation, it is no different from the bottom of the pot.
Second,Alphabet is currently experiencing the most difficult period, and the growth rate of traffic advertising is weak.The market share of Android has declined, and Alphabet cannot bear it.
Third,One more opponent out of thin air will make Alphabet in danger of falling into the chronic disease effect.Alphabet will push a brand-new operating system Fuchsia, and now the backyard is on fire, which is not conducive to Alphabet’s vertical expansion of the operating system to survive the chronic disease effect.
Fourth,It may lead to a domino effect, which makes some mobile phone manufacturers turn to HarmonyOS.Form the upstream and downstream ecology of HarmonyOS. HarmonyOS will eat a fat piece of Android, and Alphabet is in such a hurry that HarmonyOS has become a nightmare for Alphabet.
At that time, HarmonyOS will attack head-on, and if iOS attacks again, the situation of Alphabet is not optimistic. Android retreats, HarmonyOS grabs food, and iOS sticks to it. There is basically no suspense in the top three operating systems.
To be an operating system, look at its threshold.
1, rich, pay attention to is very rich, can maintain the annual expenditure of $1 billion without affecting the company as a whole;
2. There is enough manpower input, and a stable development team with at least 5,000 people focuses on the operating system.
3. There should be enough hardware platforms to digest the operating system. That is to say, the market positioning should be done well to accommodate its growth.
4. It is necessary to achieve sales of more than 100 million copies per year, otherwise it will not form an ecology and there is no need to do it.
These points are just enough for Huawei. And its ideal state is to reach the level of Apple’s iOS.
Ren Zhengfei said that Apple is a teacher of Huawei, and iOS has become the goal pursued by HarmonyOS. However, Huawei does not simply and rudely accept all the orders, and Apple does not want to learn.
Apple’s iOS framework designs are linked with each other, and the data channels of mobile phones, tablets and computers are opened from the operating system level, and the data channels with cars will be opened in the future.
Its systematic design genes are not complicated on the surface, but contain super many detailed elements. For example, every time Apple’s iOS is upgraded, it even needs to modify hundreds of details. This is the most tedious and time-consuming investment.
Apple has been digging holes for potential competitors. This is like a small "conspiracy". When the latecomers catch up, they will be upgraded, so that the followers can’t keep up with the pace, and the barriers will be built.
As long as developers are willing, there can be endless improvements, and the improvement timeline can continue all the time. The development of operating system needs to maintain a huge R&D team to cope with the changes of market and technology at any time, but the surge in the number of developers may aggravate the chronic disease effect of operating system.
You need to pay attention to some details to make an operating system.
1, the technical strength is strong enough, strong enough to achieve technical output, and become a leader in this field.At present, almost all operating system development companies are basically technology leaders;
2. There are enough technicians to cope with all aspects of the operating system.From front-end to back-end, from kernel to shell, from various protocol stacks to various API designs, the operating system has become a digital mapping of the real physical society, and only a strong enough technical force can cope with it.
3, a keen sense of technical smell, keep up with the technical outlet or guide the technical outlet at any time.
4. Good technical framework design, which can continuously update iterations and balance a wide range of hardware platforms.
Few people can do this. For example, enough developers are enough for most investors to put a stop to it. It may take thousands of people to maintain and develop an operating system, and the code scale is close to 100 million lines.
If we have no idea about this, we can do an arithmetic. This 100 million lines of code plus other materials will take up about 20GB (much smaller after compilation), and now Android is about this size.
This can be handled, and the continuous large amount of unrewarded services will make it difficult for any company that pays attention to revenue to survive. At the same time, we also need to face a long-term thankless upgrade, and if it is not good, it will be swallowed up, and the operating system will face great risks.
We can also understand Huawei’s caution. After all, this is no joke, and it is possible to become famous or to be beyond redemption. The development of operating system is not a good option, or a bad option, unless it is absolutely necessary.
Therefore, it is impossible for companies with poor revenue and companies with insufficient scale to support the sustainable development of the operating system. At present, several mature operating systems, the parent company’s revenue is very good, do not expect to make money directly through the operating system, all by building a traffic fortress, using traffic to turn into profits.
Traffic contention has thus become the core task of the operating system, and even Alphabet has not been exempted. According to its financial report, Alphabet’s traffic fortress has provided half of its advertising revenue. To this end, it also paid Apple’s $9.5 billion traffic entrance fee in 2018, and this fee is still rising. It is reported that it will reach 12 billion US dollars in 2019.
Apple can enjoy it, and the $10 billion bomb command room. Apple now has about 1 billion active users, which brings about $30 billion in direct benefits to Apple every year. Please note that this is only the value that its users bring to Apple. Imagine that Apple can sell users as a whole again, and the black hole effect of the operating system is full.
No wonder in WWDC2019, the measure of logging in with random email address was particularly emphasized, and Apple also forced App developers to introduce this strategy. On the surface, it did protect users’ privacy, but basically Apple prevented its App from stealing its user bonus.
Technology and capital are the appearance of the existence of operating system; Ecosystem, traffic portal and user bonus are the essence of operating system.
Apple’s iOS has users, traffic and money. It consumes enough time and money, and it also gives birth to a new format of making money. Apple’s iOS is a perfect example of showing the black hole of the operating system.
Alphabet wants to learn it, but it is hard to say whether Huawei can learn its essence. In fact, we have overlooked a key point. Apple started from the operating system. Since the Lisa computer in 1983, Apple’s operating system has been completely one dimension higher than its contemporaries, and it still is. It is not difficult for Huawei to learn from Apple.
But why is it daunting to develop an operating system? Most developers died halfway?
I think there are two points: the black hole effect and the chronic disease effect mentioned earlier. The black hole effect devours money, and the chronic disease effect devours hope.
The operating system looks easy — — Open source can be used for reference; It is the hardest to do, and it is difficult to make money through the operating system. That is to say, on the road of making money, the operating system is only the first step, and it is the key to build various service architectures on the platform of the operating system. This is the cause of chronic disease effect.
Alphabet and Apple present two different ways to make money. Alphabet sells traffic to earn advertising fees, Apple sells mobile phones to earn money, and sells traffic to Alphabet. Apple is more stable and its business foundation is more solid. While the growth rate of Alphabet has slowed down, it remains to be seen what form HarmonyOS will take in the future.
On the whole,Alphabet is virtual as a whole, and the output of hardware platform is very low. Apple and Huawei have similar hardware platforms, which can theoretically support their introduction of the Apple model. However, the precautions against Apple in the market are already obvious. If another "Apple" appears, it is estimated that it will be jointly strangled by competitors, and developers may also have resistance.. Therefore, how Huawei can break through in the current mode is a test of its top-level software design ability.
In a similar market sentiment, let’s look at the examples that have failed. In their closed circles, Palm and Blackberry both have operating systems, but the design idea with local service and mail service as the core determines their defeat, and they have not kept pace with the times when the network is rapidly evolving.
They first fell into the black hole effect and were swallowed up by money, then fell into the chronic disease effect and were swallowed up by hope, and gradually disappeared with the elimination of products. Interestingly, QNX of Blackberry unexpectedly found living space on smart cars, accounting for about 75% of the total.
Symbian is also seriously ill. It used to have the largest market share, but its architecture design has fallen behind the times. In the face of Apple’s powerful attack, it has no clue to deal with it, leading to its collapse.
Symbian, Blackberry and Palm are not without strong user base or technical base. Similarly, they are supported by strong development groups, and there is a view that they are too slow to cope with market changes. In fact, it is the lack of flexibility in architecture design, which has been unable to cope with the changes in business environment. At the same time, "they are trapped in their own successful past", unable to develop, and swallowed up by chronic disease effects.
Operating system naturally has chronic disease characteristics, and update iteration is the root of chronic disease effect of operating system.
Weak organizational structure can also lead to a sharp deterioration of the disease.
In order to get rid of the chronic disease effect, Alphabet took the initiative to make several major updates to Android. In version 4.4, the ART(Android Runtime) mode is provided to improve efficiency. And the AOT (pre-compilation) mode is provided in Android version 5.x, which has tripled the speed of Android 5.x These key updates prevent Alphabet from falling into the chronic disease effect.
Besides,Vertical deep ploughing of the operating system can also effectively avoid the chronic disease effect.At present, Apple and Alphabet are betting on smart driving as a vertical expansion. Apple has smart driving — Titan plans that in order to strengthen Apple’s position in smart driving, Apple is still seeking to acquire Drive.ai；; Alphabet invested earlier in the field of intelligent driving, and its investment in Waymo was at the forefront of the field.
Huawei’s trend in smart driving is also worth noting.On May 27th, Huawei’s smart car BU was formally established. Considering the ambition of HarmonyOS system to get through the car data channel, it is not surprising that Huawei cut into the car intelligent system.
However, the three bet on smart driving at the same time. On the one hand, under the existing traffic model, the high-growth model is hard to find, and new methods of "outsourcing" are needed to break through; On the other hand, the training cost of the new profit Taurus is getting higher and higher, so we have to make plans early. The third is the traffic entrance of intelligent driving, which is too attractive for them to refuse.
Atrix in the field of mobile phones will repeat itself in the field of intelligent driving, only in a different competitive position, but the essence of the competition for data, traffic and user bonuses will remain the same as before. The difference is that in the new consumption battlefield, users’ consumption habits and consumption power may change, and their sensitivity to traffic and consumption behavior makes them run on the same track.
Alphabet once thought about closing Android and building its own ecosystem like iOS. Later, Alphabet gave up this principle. If you insist on learning iOS, it may fall into Apple’s pit. Huawei comes from hardware, and has invested in chips for a long time, and its infrastructure is complete. Learning from Apple has an advantage over Alphabet.
Some people have counted Huawei’s input and output. They predict that when Huawei’s sales revenue reaches $10 billion, it will cross the growth inflection point of J-curve, and the subsequent input will greatly improve Huawei’s output.This is also the case, and Huawei has crossed the J-shaped growth and realized the S-shaped curve growth model, which has been going on for more than ten years.
It stepped on the rhythm of technological development at the node of development and growth, and perfectly fitted the quadratic S curve.Before the last business reached the inflection point of growth decline, Huawei’s growth was completely like "beating" by changing positions to maintain rapid growth.
It is indeed "typed". R&D plays a key role. From 2006 to 2018, Huawei invested nearly $70 billion in research and development. At present, its annual research and development expenses exceed that of Apple.
Its R&D machine runs at a high speed, and its combat effectiveness is super strong. It has the basis of learning from Apple, and its organizational structure is also forward-looking.
As early as 20 years ago, Huawei made preparations for its management and organizational structure. It took nearly 20 years to bridge 15 consulting companies and improve its R&D organizational structure.
Ren Zhengfei said, "Learn from all advanced technologies". This is not only a slogan, but also a horn.
Since 1998, Huawei, which blew the horn, spent 400 million dollars and spent five years fully introducing IBM’s management structure and development-oriented organizational structure, thus breaking out with strong combat effectiveness and remarkable results.
"Intelligent Relativity" inquired that in 1998, Huawei had 8,000 employees, the number of which was about 4.4% now; Sales amounted to 9 billion RMB, about 1.25% of the current level. In contrast, Huawei’s efficiency is now 3.5 times that of that time. No wonder some people say that Huawei can achieve 160 million sales with 100 people, and its 100 people are only about one-third of Huawei’s productivity.
After feeling the strong productivity of the organizational structure, Huawei is full of energy in learning the organizational structure. After the product development system was designed by IBM, the human resources system was designed by Hay Group. The organizational structure is designed by Mercer; The financial system is designed by PricewaterhouseCoopers; The sales system is designed by Accenture; The supply chain system is designed by IBM. …
Huawei, which has not yet reached the peak, has stood at the highest point in spirit. The results are also quite remarkable.
In the end, IBM, once a teacher, learned Huawei’s development model in turn. Huawei started to export knowledge from knowledge input and exported it to its own teachers. This is very interesting.
IBM’s "support" for Huawei is crucial. This time ‘ Cut off the supply ’ Huawei is in no hurry. It adopts the supply chain system designed by IBM, and has long considered its business continuity in extreme cases, so it will not be directly shocked like ZTE.
It is impossible to find out whether the bureau set up twenty years ago was able to hit the nail on the head twenty years later, whether it was an unintentional blow or a deliberate pursuit of intentional action. But it is coincidence and necessity that this kind of precaution can be so accurate.
"The basketball that was thrown twenty years ago accurately hit the blue box twenty years later, which is both foresight and luck."
However, when Huawei introduced the external management structure, it was not smooth sailing and met with strong internal resistance. It is said that at that time, it was very tough and strongly promoted. If the management objected or did not support it, it was directly demoted or even fired. In the end, Huawei surpassed the category of an inanimate organization team and evolved into an evolving life, with high-speed growth and efficiency.
Looking at IBM twenty years later, it has fallen behind Huawei in efficiency and productivity. At present, IBM has 350,000 employees, nearly twice that of Huawei, and its annual sales have dropped to about 80 billion dollars, only 80% of Huawei’s. That is to say, IBM’s per capita creation is only about 40% of Huawei’s. IBM is still suffering from the pain of continuing to shrink, and its annual sales volume is still decreasing. Compared with Huawei’s triumphant progress, the annual sales volume plays a triumphant song. Is there a big contrast between the hatchbacks?
With the organizational structure and the preparation of developers, Huawei started the journey of operating system. But at first, it started with the details. Huawei has solved several major problems of Android:
1. The efficiency of long-term operation, from a moment to a lifetime, and promised not to get stuck for 18 months;
2. Full stack optimization to solve structural problems, rather than simple tinkering. To this end, Huawei invested 40% of EMUI’s manpower to optimize.
3. Optimize the management of fragmented files and improve the recycling method of fragmented files from the bottom. And introduced F2FS (Flash Optimized File System). Although this was developed by Samsung, Huawei carried it forward and successfully entered the Android native system in 2018.
If the above items have pierced the flesh and blood of Android, the compiler is completely rushing to the heart of Android.
In April 2019, with the release of P30, Huawei announced the Ark compiler. Even if the existing App does not change the code, recompiling once can improve the performance by 40%. This means that Huawei pays great attention to the understanding and optimization of hardware while doing the underlying software, which is the basis for doing a good job in the operating system.
Huawei also put forward the concept of full-stack optimization from hardware, chip, bottom software and application software, and with the help of artificial intelligence, it analyzes the application side intelligence and judges the resource demand characteristics of the application (calculation-intensive, RAM-intensive, IO-intensive, etc.), and breaks them down one by one in a targeted manner; On the hardware resource side, the status of CPU, memory, IO(Input/Output), storage and other resources is perceived, and idle resources are sorted and recycled in time and reasonably through AI algorithm, thus solving the problems of hardware resource coordination and excessive expansion of APP space.
In addition, in terms of external collaboration, we have established an Android Green Alliance with more than 1,000 partners, optimized more than 200,000 apps, and built development standards. In the ecosystem, we need efficiency from algorithms, exchange efficiency for speed, and exchange speed for user experience.
Huawei completely grasped the seven inches of the operating system and also grasped the pain points of users. On the one hand, it is a strong technical output, and on the other hand, it is a strong demand. Through the operating system, Huawei has completed the port docking.
Huawei has completely become the "big brother". The operating system has come naturally … …
When Huawei was founded, it was in the midst of Ren Zhengfei’s internal and external troubles, which determined Huawei’s unique temperament as a company. So that in the Sino-US trade war, when Huawei was treated specially, there were actually countermeasures. This makes two kinds of voices in the market have no market: one is to fight back with high-profile and not admit defeat, and the other is to quickly admit that it will not suffer, but no matter which voice, it quietly exits after the launch of Huawei’s plan. According to its own business logic, Huawei has already made a layout, so it is still calm in the face of life and death, and all the cards in its hands are played out.
Everyone knows these things. First of all, Huawei turned the spare tire plan into a positive one, including chips, which can replace the United States to cut off supply and ensure business continuity; Secondly, it launched a more radical operating system plan and registered its trademark at the end of May. This actually shows that Huawei would not have turned the spare tire plan into a regular one so early if it was not the current accident. It still needs time to strengthen its bones and muscles in order to win with one blow. It also shows that the operating system can’t succeed on a whim, and there are endless examples of dying on the beach.
Opening the history of the operating system is a history of blood and tears.The IT companies we are familiar with have basically done operating systems (this paper mainly refers to consumer operating systems, and business operating systems such as Tencent and Alibaba). Before that, China Unicom, China Mobile and ZTE have all tried, and then Tencent and Alibaba have basically tasted it. Baidu duerOS’s business scope focuses on the AI market segment, while AliOS has shifted its position and wants to lay a world in the IoT field. But they are all frustrated in the field of mobile phone operating system. Huawei goes against the trend, and many people admire it. I want to see more plays.
Huawei’s approach has two effects, one is to set an example for domestic technology companies, and the other is to expose Huawei’s ambition — — That is, to become the head company of a world-class company.At present, there are not many companies ahead of it. According to its plan, if it can develop smoothly according to the second curve model, within five years, Huawei will become the largest technology company in the world, thus making history.
However, the ideal route of Huawei’s development was pressed the pause button. From enterprise-level products to consumer-level products, with the complete supply of chips, services and software, Huawei’s development speed has been seriously slowed down.
What is seriously lowered is the confidence of partners in whether Huawei can continue to move forward. After Huawei was restricted, some of Huawei’s partners began to offline their mobile phone sales, and some contracts began to swing, which increased the uncertainty of Huawei’s 5G base station contract.
At present, in Huawei’s growth sequence, the growth rate of consumer business is the first, and the base station business that has been silent for a period of time has also begun to break out with 5 G. The United States has suppressed Huawei’s development momentum, which is equivalent to giving Huawei a death sentence, and the US government is waiting for the result.
But the result is a bit surprising. Huawei is hard in the market and technically dead. Where does its confidence come from? Knowing that the operating system is a black hole, you dare to move forward bravely.
In Huawei’s strategic arsenal, there are also rich private collections. For example, Huawei, which turned the spare tire plan into a positive overnight and was banned at the same time, did not lose its development momentum as some people expected, and its 5G base station delivery continued to rise.
Of course, Huawei’s key competitiveness is not its arsenal inventory, but more than 100,000 employees including 70,000 developers. Stimulated by Huawei’s wolf culture, Huawei has such a strong fighting capacity that it can rebound strongly when it receives a ban.
Huawei’s strength lies in its execution. After so many years in the market, its sensitive reaction to the market has become a genetic memory.
Over the years, Huawei has also recognized many teachers. Before I recognized Apple as a teacher, I also recognized Nortel as a teacher and Ericsson as a teacher. This is rooted in Huawei’s follow-up strategy. Once there is no object to follow in front, the strategy may be easy to miss.
Ren Zhengfei said that China people are good at engineering innovation, not theoretical innovation.
Comparing Huawei and Qualcomm, it hit the nail on the head. Qualcomm maintains high profits by using patent sticks with lawyers exceeding the number of engineers, while Huawei makes money by materializing patents. The distinction between the upper and lower levels is self-evident.
This can be seen when Huawei expands overseas markets. Other companies grab patents, Huawei grabs talents, and other companies put their energy into the field of making money now. Huawei looks further.
Huawei can no longer just position itself as a follower. Today, it is a giant.
Once, Huawei’s bet on GSM led to "Huawei’s winter", and there was a fierce argument about whether to make a mobile phone. Once unable to survive in China, he was forced to leave overseas, and once again returned to the highlight moment because of 3G and 4G.
It almost won the opponent and lost to the times, and it almost fell on the road of charging. It defeated Nortel and Ericsson, and it swept its opponents with low prices and recruited talents with high salaries.
It has the forbearance of China people and learns from the western way of doing things; There are the wisdom of China people and the directness of foreigners; There is a hot fighting power and a warmth that allows people.
It has exploded the negative side of the wolf culture, and there are more victories in opening up the territory. It is technical and engineering, China’s and the world’s.
At present, in the 5G roll-out, the world opens a new chapter. As an infrastructure, 5G will bring about drastic changes, while China’s connected devices will be extended from mobile phones to automobiles and industries, and the data and access will be improved by orders of magnitude.
Standing in the center of the 5G stage, Huawei no longer needs other people to dance.
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